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American Principles Project Blog

Contributions by the American Principle Project and its collaborators
Feb 05
2010

Understanding the new job numbers

Posted by: Thomas Peters in

Tagged in: economy , economics

Thomas Peters

The AP reports:

The outlook for jobs became a bit less bleak with January's unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent as more people said they had jobs.

Still, Friday's unemployment report showed just how deep the job crisis remains. The government now estimates 8.4 million jobs vanished in the Great Recession, and economists think the nation would be lucky to get back 1.5 million of them this year. And they say it will take at least three to four years for the job market to return to anything like normal.

The unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since August, primarily because a Labor Department survey of households found a sharp increase in the number of Americans with jobs. Analysts expected an increase to 10.1 percent.

A separate survey of businesses found that employers shed 20,000 jobs last month.

Samuel Staley at NRO provides commentary:

Most of the new jobs were in temporary help and retail trade, not the sectors that are critical to growing a permanent job base. In fact, the number of "long-term job losers" — those unemployed for more than 27 weeks — was still trending up in January. A total of 5 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of the recession, according to the BLS.
 
Moreover, much of the job growth in the past has been in the public sector and through gimmicks such as the so-called "cash for clunkers," and this is unsustainable as a foundation for long-term economic growth. While private industry appears to be replenishing depleted inventories, many manufacturers are skittish about significantly increasing production to meet rising consumer demand that may not be there. This is still a very risk-averse economic environment.
 
Still, the goods news appears to be that we are no longer experiencing the kinds of declines in private sector payrolls that undermine a recovery. The rising national debt, uncertainty about how much federal lawmakers will want to penalize private wealth creation through higher taxes, and the growing aggressiveness of the federal government in steering the direction of major U.S. industries remain hurdles for private-investor confidence.

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