The days of Ronald Reagan are gone and Democrats have transformed California into one of their greatest strongholds.  Senator Barbara Boxer, the sponsor of the (unsuccessful) Freedom of Choice Act to enshrine Roe v. Wade in law, is one of the most far left Democrats in the Senate.

That was before all three of her G.O.P. challengers cut her polling advantage to less than 6%.

The most recent primary poll shows liberal former Representative Tom Campbell at 32%, moderate former Hewlett-Packard C.E.O. Carly Fiorina at 18.5%, and conservative State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore at 11%.  But with 39% of likely GOP primary voters undecided and with few voters very certain this early on, the race is still considered to be up for grabs.

The New York Times predicted that Carly Fiorina and Chuck DeVore would split the conservative G.O.P. vote, allowing Tom Campbell to waltz to victory with the liberal G.O.P. and some of the unaffiliated independent votes.  However, it has not been smooth sailing for the liberal Republican.  Carly Fiorina welcomed him into the race by attacking him with the now-infamous “Demon Sheep” ad.  She was criticized for the over-the-top quality of the ad, but she has kept Campbell on the defensive ever since, forcing him to defend anti-Israel votes and his support of tax hikes.

Now, the L.A. Times is breaking a new scandal of Campbell falsely denying a letter he wrote to defend a radical Islamic professor who was a donor to his campaigns.  Campbell is in hot water, to put it mildly, and it is unclear if his poll numbers will be able to survive the onslaught (and money) of the Fiorina campaign.

Conservative pundit Dick Morris believes that Carly Fiorina, who has by far the most money (including $2.5 million of her own) in the race, can pull ahead of Tom Campbell – describing her as a “successful businesswoman.”  She has gained the support of the Republican establishment, with a swathe of sitting Republican Senators endorsing her.

However, she too has run into some stormy waters.  Tom Campbell has accused her of slander, which has hurt her somewhat.  And Arianna Packard, the granddaughter of HP co-founder David Packard, has slammed Carly Fiorina in an article in Politico.  She argues that the only reason that Fiorina is no longer the CEO of HP is because she was fired for almost destroying the entire company.  She endorses Assemblyman Chuck DeVore as a real conservative.

In early February, George Will surprised everyone by predicting that Chuck DeVore would emerge victorious.  The truth is that Chuck DeVore would have to turn this into a three way race and thread the needle in order to win.

However, he has won a string of critical endorsements that have allowed his poll numbers and fundraising numbers to grow: Senator Jim DeMint’s Senate Conservatives Fund on November 3rd, the Erick Erickson’s conservative blog Redstate on February 11th, radio host Mark Levin on February 16th, and the California Republican Assembly, “conscience of the Republican Party,” on March 7th.  However, in order to turn the race into a three way race, he needs the coveted endorsement of Sarah Palin, which vaunted NY-23’s Doug Hoffman to stardom.  Without her endorsement, anything he does will be too little … too late.

And whoever wins will be the underdog against Barbara Boxer …

Polling Scorecard If Race Was Held Today – Republicans Pick Up 8 Seats.

Harry Reid is in deep trouble in Nevada.  His poll numbers are tanking.  Conservative State Republican Chairwoman and former Miss America runner-up Sue Lowden (above) has pulled ahead of businessman Danny Tarkanian.  Either nominee is poised to deliver a double digit demolition to Harry Reid.

Only one person can save Harry Reid.  Could it be Barack Obama?  Well, actually, Obama has campaigned for Harry Reid, which apparently further damaged Reid’s poll numbers.  The person who can save Harry Reid is … John Ashjian.

The newly registered Tea Party Candidate siphons the vote off from the likely nominee Sue Lowden, cutting her lead over Harry Reid from 12% to 5%.  With Harry Reid unable to save himself, his only hope is for John Ashjian to turn Nevada into a three way race that would allow Reid to pull to victory with only Democratic (and no Independent) votes.

However, turning it into a three way race will be a tall order for the unknown newcomer.  He has been condemned by Nevada Tea Party groups, who claim he has never been an activist.  He is under investigation for fraud in his business practice at the same time as he is about to come under scrutiny as a fraud candidate in the race.  With conservative media personalities who drive out of state grassroots fundraising (like Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levine) adamantly opposed to his spoiler role, his fundraising numbers are likely to be anemic.

His only natural ally will be the over-eager media attempting to milk his story, but they will be just as eager to print GOP accusations that he is a plant by the Reid campaign as anything he wants them to print.  And finally, he is presumably attempting to run to the right of Sue Lowden, which is difficult because she has not left much ideological elbow room to her right (which is why Sharron Angle, the most conservative candidate in the primary, has been a non-factor thus far).

In spite of the media hype surrounding the Nevada Tea Party, it looks like a red herring that will not quite be able to save Harry Reid.  But it will make things interesting … and tricky.

Polling Scorecard If Election Was Held Today – Republicans Pick Up 7 Seats.

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Late breaking update: Huffington Post reports that Jon Scott Ashjian owes more than $200,000 in back taxes.

Blanche Lincoln has just had another withering blow dealt to her re-election bid in Arkansas.  Popular Republican Rep. John Boozman has declared that he will join the crowded field of possible GOP opponents to Lincoln.  All of her opponents have surged to large double digit leads against her in the most recent polls.

Arkansas, while a reliably Democratic state, is the only state in America where more voters opposed Barack Obama than John Kerry.  Arkansas is also considered to be the only state in America where any association with Obama would hurt a Democratic candidate.

Many believe that Blanche Lincoln needed to distance herself from the goals of the Obama Administration, which is perceived as radical in Arkansas.  Lincoln has always tried to be a moderate.  However, her vote in favor of health care reform has dealt her a crippling blow.

Now, with plummeting approval ratings and increasingly aggressive attacks from national conservative groups, her prospects look bleak.

Current Polling Scorecard If Race Was Today -- Republicans Pick Up 8 Seats.