The Chief of Staff for Rep. Eric J.J. Massa of New York has just confirmed that the Democrat will in fact be resigning his seat by the end of today.  Eric Massa has come forward today with the claim that Rahm Emmanuel conspired to eliminate him because of his opposition to Obamacare.  To more fully understand what could be gained by eliminating Massa, the situation bears some scrutiny.

Eric Massa campaigned on a platform of abolishing insurance companies altogether.  Although this is to the left of most Congressional Democrats and far to the left of rural upstate New York, he avoided the stigma of being a liberal on the basis of his distinguished career in the Navy.

When he voted against the House Health Care Reform Bill, he and Dennis Kucinich of Ohio were the only two Democrats that opposed the bill for being too conservative.  Both quickly announced opposition to the more moderate Senate Health Care Reform Bill.

The important thing here is that this resignation may open the door for Nancy Pelosi to be able to bypass the giant roadblock to health care reform called Bart Stupak.  However, we cannot overstate her strength.  She would need to convince all nine of the wavering Democrats to support the Senate Health Care Reform Bill.  Then, she would need to win all three of the special elections.  Even one loss in the special elections could be fatal.

There is an April 13th special election in Florida.  There is a May 18th special election in Pennsylvania.  There is a scheduled May 22nd special election in Hawaii.  By waiting to get reinforcements in those elections, Nancy Pelosi could also gain the additional advantage of waiting for the retirement of Georgia GOP Rep. Nathan Deal.  The big question is … can she maintain the pressure she needs to win the vote until the end of May?

No one has ever accused her of being short on willpower, but … that is a long time to keep the newspapers buzzing about an unpopular issue in an election year.

And even one election loss in FL, PA, or HI could be fatal.